Tuesday night was a night to forget. The A’s and Orioles never came close to cashing the over and thanks to the Cardinals’ late offensive outburst, the under in their game with the Pirates also lost. My only other play was a push in the Red Sox-Blue Jays game and I was fortunate that wasn’t a loss, as Boston scored a bunch of runs late in a 7-2 victory. The 0-2-1 night dropped my record to 47-24-2 on the year.
Let’s put that one behind us and look ahead to Wednesday night…
907 Washington Nationals at 908 Philadelphia Phillies, 6:05 p.m. CT
I don’t love taking the under in games played at Citizens Bank Park but this matchup has pitcher’s duel written all over it. Stephen Strasburg hasn’t been dominant since coming off the disabled list but he strikes out batters (28%) and keeps the ball on the ground (45%). The Phillies have plenty of pop to ruin a good under play but they also strike out a ton against right-handed pitching. On the other side is Aaron Nola, who is one of the best pitchers in the game with elite numbers across the board. The under is a perfect 5-0 in Strasburg’s last five road starts versus the Phillies and is 6-1 in Nola’s last seven outings against Washington. Runs should be at a premium tonight in Philly.
Prediction: Under 7.5
925 Chicago White Sox at 926 Kansas City Royals, 7:15 p.m. CT
Brad Keller was outstanding against this White Sox offense last night but Chicago should fare better tonight versus Eric Skoglund, who has not pitched well this season. While he doesn’t walk many batters (6.7%), he’s also not a strikeout pitcher (17.8%) and is allowing hard contact at a 44.2% rate. Skoglund is also a fly-ball pitcher and when fly-ball pitchers also give up hard contact, the ball flies out of the yard. As for Chicago’s starter, Carlos Rodon owns a 3.11 ERA on the season but his 4.76 FIP and 5.22 xFIP point to a massive course correction at some point. And when that regression comes, it’ll be nasty. The Royals have a light-hitting offense and Kauffman Stadium is a pitcher’s park but I still see this one going over.
Prediction: Over 9
913 Arizona Diamondbacks at 914 Colorado Rockies, 7:40 p.m. CT
I broke down this matchup before seeing the odds and was shocked the the Diamondbacks were only a slight favorite tonight versus the Rockies. That usually indicates a trap but I see too much value in the D-Backs to pass on them tonight. Patrick Corbin is an elite pitcher, with a strikeout rate of 31% and a walk rate of 7.4%. He will give up some hard contact, which is a concern pitching at Coors tonight but it’s not a big enough red flag to avoid taking Arizona. On the other side is Jon Gray, who has been extremely unlucky this season but luck hasn’t been a factor in his last three starts. Over that span, he’s striking batters out at only an 8% clip and the D-Backs have fared well against right-handed pitchers this season. Here’s the kicker for me: The Diamondbacks are 14-3 in Corbin’s last 17 starts versus the Rockies. Love it.
Prediction: Diamondbacks -107
MLB: 47-24-1 (66%)
College Football: 7-5 (58%)