Kevin Wheeler and I are doing incredible things.
Let me explain. Since I started fading Wheeler, I’m now 21-35-1 with my picks. That’s a staggering 38-percent win percentage for me, but a 62-percent win percentage for you, the reader. That’s what the professionals hit, ladies and gentlemen.
So I fade Wheeler, you fade me, and you collect at 62-percent.
Fade these plays below. It’s my gift to you.
(In all seriousness, Wheeler has been incredible this year with his NFL picks. He’s 134-99-1, so make sure you check out all of his picks for Week 16.)
Redskins @ Bears
Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson stole the show last Sunday in Chicago but one storyline that flew under the radar was the performance of Matt Barkley, who threw for 362 yards and two touchdowns in the Bears’ three-point loss. Granted, he also tossed three interceptions and lost a fumble, but the bottom line is that he’s played beyond anyone’s expectations.
The Redskins, meanwhile, was thoroughly beaten at home by a Panthers team that has been a mess for most of 2016. Washington can’t run the ball and I don’t trust Kirk Cousins when the expectations are highest. I’ll take the home-dog Bears.
Wheeler: Redskins -3
Stalter: Bears +3
Colts @ Raiders
The Colts have beaten the Raiders four straight times and while that doesn’t mean that this Indianapolis team will win on Saturday, I’m willing to bet that this came comes down to a field goal. The Colts have been a good road bet, going 4-0-1 against the spread in their last five games away from Lucas Oil Stadium, while the Raiders are just 3-8 at the betting window in their last 11 home games. Andrew Luck is a little banged up, but he’s not on Indy’s injury report so I feel safe rolling the dice on the dog.
Wheeler: Raiders -3.5
Stalter: Colts +3.5
Broncos @ Chiefs
I hate that this line comes with a hook but I hate Denver’s offense even more right now. The Chiefs surrendered first place in the AFC West and the No. 2 seed in the playoff picture with their loss to the Titans last week, so this game is crucial. I trust Alex Smith and Spencer Ware more than I trust Trevor Siemian and Justin Forsett, who did nothing last week at home versus the Patriots. The Broncos are 1-5 against the spread in their last six divisional games while the Chiefs are a perfect 4-0 against the number in their last four games coming off a loss.
Wheeler: Broncos +3.5
Stalter: Chiefs -3.5
Lions @ Cowboys
In 2014 the Cowboys had their playoff spot and seed locked in heading into the regular-season finale. Tony Romo played 57 of 63 snaps against the Redskins, while a banged-up DeMarco Murray rushed 22 times for 31 snaps. That was in Week 17, not Week 16. My point is that even though the Cowboys clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs with the Giants’ loss to the Eagles on Thursday night, I fully expect Jason Garrett to play all of his starters. Ezekiel Elliott is going for Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record and Dak Prescott can use all the snaps he can get before heading into the playoffs. With the Lions in full collapse mode, I’ll lay the points with Dallas.
Wheeler: Lions +6.5
Stalter: Cowboys -6.5
More: Wheeler – Your Friday NFL Fix and Picks: Lions-Cowboys MNF Will Be a Close One; Packers Keep Rolling